A trader has amassed nearly $1 million in profits since 2024 by placing well-timed bets on Polymarket regarding US and Israeli military actions against Iran, according to analysis from blockchain tracking firm Bubblemaps. The findings, shared with CNN, reveal a pattern of prescient wagers that occurred hours before major military operations were publicly announced, triggering allegations of insider trading within the prediction market space.
Suspicious Timing and High Win Rates
The anonymous bettor reportedly won 93% of their five-figure wagers related to Iranian conflicts. Key bets were placed just hours before significant events, including Israeli strikes in October 2024, US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025, and a joint US-Israeli surprise attack in February. Bubblemaps CEO Nick Vaiman described the activity as strong signaling of insider behavior, citing the specific markets chosen, the timing of the trades, and the connections found on-chain.
Financial experts note that the trader's success rate far exceeds standard market probabilities. Todd Phillips, a finance professor at Georgia State University, pointed out that while high-frequency traders typically achieve win rates slightly above 50%, this trader maintained an overall win rate of 83%. Phillips suggested the statistics indicate either incredible luck or the use of non-public information.
Regulatory Scrutiny and Platform Rules
The trades were placed on Polymarket’s international site, which operates outside direct US regulation. While Americans are technically restricted, access remains easy through virtual private networks (VPNs). In response to rising concerns, Polymarket announced new rules prohibiting trades based on confidential information and banning individuals with the authority to influence events from participating in related markets.
This incident adds to a growing trend of suspicious activity on prediction platforms, following similar instances regarding other geopolitical events. Consequently, US lawmakers have proposed legislation to prevent federal officials from betting on non-public information, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued guidance reminding operators that insider trading enforcement remains a priority.
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